By now, the Glacier National Park in Montana has become completely ice-free, the park's namesakes having disappeared as a result of global warming. An earlier model (shown below) had forecast this event for 2030, based on a study by the US Geological Survey, along with 1992 temperature predictions by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, updated computer models and fresh data obtained in 2009 indicated a temperature rise more than twice as rapid as previously thought.
As early as 2020, therefore, the glaciers were gone, leaving behind only barren rock. Many cold water dependent plants and animals subsequently died out due to loss of habitat, including a number of rare species. Reduced seasonal melting of ice also affected stream flow during the dry summer and fall seasons, reducing water table levels and increasing the number of forest fires. This had the added effect of putting more carbon into the atmosphere. The loss of glaciers also reduced the aesthetic visual appeal of the region for visiting tourists.
This process is being mirrored all over the world, with non-polar ice beginning to vanish from many prominent regions including the Andes, Alps, Himalayas and Kilimanjaro.
Later this century, glacier loss from the Himalayas will have a devastating impact - destabilising much of the Indian subcontinent, including the nuclear-armed Pakistan. Floods and mudslides will be triggered by the initial melting. Afterwards, fewer and smaller glaciers will mean less run-off to rivers such as the Ganges that would normally provide fresh water for drinking, agricultural production and hydroelectric power generation. Given that the Mekong, Yangtze and Yellow rivers are affected too, this could mean water shortages for potentially two billion people.
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